Research
Market gravity: why some cities are routinely skipped
Routing decisions are economic, not editorial. Modelling them makes it possible to say which markets are underserved and by how much.
- Authors
- Published
- Updated
Contributions
- Live Index Research Desk — Research, Routing record collection
Conceptual framework · not measured data
Why routing concentrates and underservice persists
The article describes routing as self-confirming: markets that receive dates generate the evidence that justifies more dates, while markets that do not receive them generate no evidence at all. The loop restates that mechanism.
- 01
A market receives dates
Routing includes it because prior results exist.
- 02
Sales data accumulate
Each date produces the evidence the next booking decision uses.
- 03
Confidence rises
Documented demand lowers the perceived risk of returning.
- 04
Routing concentrates
Dates cluster where evidence is thickest.
LoopA market outside the loop produces no data, which is read as no demand. The article's argument is that underservice can be a measurement artefact as much as a market fact.
When a tour skips a city, the explanation offered locally is usually cultural. The actual explanation is generally a routing budget: the marginal cost of adding the market exceeded the expected marginal return, given where the tour already had to be.
Modelling pull
Market gravity estimates the attractiveness of a market to a routing decision, holding artist size constant, from population, venue supply at the relevant capacity band, travel cost from adjacent markets, and historical attendance.
Residuals are the interesting part
Cities that receive substantially less activity than the model predicts are underserved in a specific, measurable sense. That residual is a far more useful input to local advocacy than a comparison with a larger city that has different fundamentals.
Publishing the model
The model is published in full, including coefficients and specification. A routing model that cannot be contested is not evidence; it is an assertion with arithmetic attached.
Sources and citations
- Tour Routing Records
- Live Index methodology
Publication record
The structured record for this document. Classification is drawn from the Live Index controlled vocabulary so relationships between people, subjects, places and measurements stay consistent across the platform.
- Content type
- Market Paper
- Primary topic
- Touring
- Secondary topics
- Economic ImpactUrban DevelopmentTourism
- Themes
- AccessMarket HealthLocalismParticipation
- Economic concepts
- DemandVariable CostsNetwork EffectsSupply Constraints
- Measurements
- Market Gravity IndexConcert Activity IndexTouring Economics Index
- Methodology
- What we measure
Corrections and revisions
No corrections have been issued for this document. Substantive errors are corrected on this page, dated and retained.
Cite this research
- Plain
- Omar Afra, "Market gravity: why some cities are routinely skipped", Live Index, July 10, 2026, https://liveindex.io/research/market-gravity-and-underserved-cities
- APA
- Afra, O. (2026, July 10). Market gravity: why some cities are routinely skipped. Live Index. https://liveindex.io/research/market-gravity-and-underserved-cities
- Chicago
- Omar Afra. "Market gravity: why some cities are routinely skipped." Live Index, July 10, 2026. https://liveindex.io/research/market-gravity-and-underserved-cities.
- BibTeX
- @online{research-market-gravity-and-underserved-cities-2026, author = {Omar Afra}, title = {Market gravity: why some cities are routinely skipped}, organization = {Live Index}, date = {2026-07-10}, url = {https://liveindex.io/research/market-gravity-and-underserved-cities} }