Live Index Performance Estimate methodology

Status and interpretation

Live Index Performance Estimate — not reported box office. This version 1.0.0 protocol defines what Live Index will accept before publishing an estimate; it is not a claim that observations have already been collected or that the protocol has been validated against actual settlements. No estimate rows are released with this document. A method can establish a reproducible decision rule without establishing any particular show’s attendance, gross, sellout status or promoter profit.

What the estimate means

The object is a particular performance at a particular venue on a stated date, not a tour, artist or national market. An estimate must be a band reflecting documented uncertainty. It is not an audited settlement, a published box-office return, a measure of artist income or a promoter-margin calculation. Record the event identity and configuration before evaluating any price or inventory signal. Different dates of the same tour are separate records.

Permissible inputs

• Record the primary inventory page, observation timestamp and sales phase. Preserve the source’s seat or section distinctions rather than converting every unavailable ticket to a sale.
• Document the concert configuration and its exclusions. Maximum building capacity is not sellable inventory. Production kills, holds and complimentary allocations need separate treatment.
• Record observed primary price bands, currency and whether mandatory charges are included. Listing prices from resale are not primary transaction prices.
• Identify the promoter and ticketing provider from explicit official statements. A ticket link establishes a sales channel, not exclusive promotion or venue ownership.

Estimation and release

A band may be computed only when the stored inputs support its assumptions. When availability cannot be reconciled with a sellable manifest, withhold the attendance estimate rather than selecting a convenient denominator. Observed price bands cannot be multiplied by physical capacity to produce a defensible gross. If sold quantities by price are missing, state that the calculation is not established. A successful evidence check permits review, not automatic publication.

Corrections and comparison

Keep the original version, timestamp, source ledger, assumptions and limits. Later reported gross and attendance belong in a separate reconciliation record linked to the prior estimate. Do not silently replace the prediction with the actual figure, exclude a miss because the show changed, or merge paid attendance with scanned entries. Publish comparable errors only when the measured quantities and event scopes match. Until comparable reports exist, accuracy remains untested.

Release gate

Publication requires a dated primary ticket-inventory observation, a venue configuration source, primary price-band evidence, promoter and ticketing evidence, a confidence classification and a record-specific limitations statement. A later reading is a new observation, not an overwrite of the previous state. The pilot remains withheld from search and the sitemap until ten observations individually pass these requirements. Downloads are offered only for real released rows, never for an empty demonstration or synthetic sample. Inventory protocol, capacity protocol and price-band protocol describe different inputs; none substitutes for the others.