Added-date demand signal

Status and interpretation

Live Index Performance Estimate — not reported box office. This version 1.0.0 protocol defines what Live Index will accept before publishing an estimate; it is not a claim that observations have already been collected or that the protocol has been validated against actual settlements. No estimate rows are released with this document. A method can establish a reproducible decision rule without establishing any particular show’s attendance, gross, sellout status or promoter profit.

Record the announcement

An added date is a newly announced performance relative to an earlier public schedule. Preserve the first schedule, the updated schedule, announcement dates and the official artist, promoter or venue source. State whether the additional date is in the same market and whether it is a separate performance, an extra festival day, a rescheduled event or a corrected listing. A calendar entry without a baseline does not prove a date was added.

Permissible interpretation

• When the promoter explicitly says a performance was added because of demand, attribute that reason to the promoter and date the statement. The announcement supports the stated reason, not an independent estimate of demand.
• When the reason is not given, publish the schedule change without attributing it to sales. Routing availability, production logistics or cancellations elsewhere are possible but must not be asserted without evidence.
• A presale sellout statement relates to a restricted allocation. It does not prove the whole first date sold out or that the extra performance will sell at the same price.
• Tickets for different dates can have different configurations, prices and availability. Keep observations separate; do not copy the first date’s estimate into the second.

Timing and access

Record whether the additional performance was announced before general sale, during a presale or after a dated inventory observation. The earlier access window matters because visible scarcity can be artificial allocation rather than exhausted demand. Do not merge repeat dates into one artist-market observation unless the method explicitly defines the aggregation and preserves each underlying performance. A promoter’s language about demand remains attributed even when later attendance is reported.

Limits of the signal

An extra performance can show that more capacity has been offered. It cannot establish tickets sold, average paid price, final gross, a sold-out tour or an artist’s earning power on its own. Compare later comparable box-office returns through the reconciliation protocol instead of upgrading a scheduling announcement to a sales outcome. Historical added dates remain dated history and are not evidence of current ticket availability. If the original schedule is unavailable, mark the baseline unresolved and withhold a measured added-date signal.

Release gate

Publication requires a dated primary ticket-inventory observation, a venue configuration source, primary price-band evidence, promoter and ticketing evidence, a confidence classification and a record-specific limitations statement. A later reading is a new observation, not an overwrite of the previous state. The pilot remains withheld from search and the sitemap until ten observations individually pass these requirements. Downloads are offered only for real released rows, never for an empty demonstration or synthetic sample. Inventory protocol, capacity protocol and price-band protocol describe different inputs; none substitutes for the others.