Tour routing and market reach

Population explains only part of a city's position in the touring economy. Some markets attract artists repeatedly because they sit efficiently between other stops, contain strong ticket demand, offer the right venue capacities or function as regional destinations. Other large metropolitan areas are bypassed more often than their population would predict. The Market Gravity Index is designed to measure this difference using routing networks rather than relying on city size as a proxy for importance.

The core dataset should represent each market as a node and each consecutive tour stop as an edge. National touring scale is large enough that a network approach is analytically meaningful; Live Nation alone reported approximately 55,000 shows and 159 million fans in 2025, although its own event universe is not intended to serve as the complete Live Index routing sample.² Repeated edges indicate established routing corridors, while the number of distinct tours entering a city measures attraction. A market that appears frequently on national tours, receives a diverse range of artist tiers and connects efficiently to many other markets would exhibit greater touring gravity than a market of similar population with fewer routed appearances.

Components

The first model should contain four components: routed appearance rate, connectivity, repeat visitation and destination draw. Routed appearance rate measures how often a market appears within a defined universe of tours. Connectivity measures the number and strength of distinct adjacent market links. Repeat visitation examines whether artists return on subsequent cycles, while destination draw uses available visitor-origin or ticket-buyer geography to estimate the extent to which audiences travel into the market.

These variables should be normalized for population and venue supply. A city should not receive a high gravity score simply because it has more residents or more seats. The analytical question is whether it attracts touring activity above or below what its scale would predict. Population controls should use consistent Census Bureau metropolitan definitions and vintages so changes in administrative geography are not mistaken for changes in touring importance.¹ Regression-based expected values can provide a benchmark, with the index reporting the residual attraction after controlling for population, income, venue capacity and regional geography.

Distance and routing efficiency

Physical distance matters because routing is a cost problem. A city located along a dense corridor can be economically attractive even with moderate demand because it reduces deadhead miles between larger markets. Conversely, a geographically isolated city may need stronger ticket demand to justify the detour. The index should therefore calculate route distance and the incremental distance associated with including a market on a tour, which can later be integrated with the Touring Economics Index.

The network should also distinguish fly dates from ground routing when those data can be inferred reliably. A stadium artist moving production by air and freight is not constrained in the same way as a club act driving a van. Artist-tier segmentation is necessary so that a city's gravity is not dominated by one touring model.

Audience gravity

Touring attraction and audience attraction are related but distinct. A major festival can create substantial destination travel even if the city is not a frequent stop on ordinary club tours. Visitor-origin data from ticketing partners, tourism studies or anonymized mobile-location analysis can support a separate audience-gravity component, but privacy and sample bias need explicit treatment. Where such data are unavailable, Live Index should leave the component blank rather than infer travel from social-media interest.

Interpretation

A high Market Gravity score would not mean that a city has the “best” music scene. It would indicate that the market occupies a strong position in the touring and audience network. Local cultural production, independent venue health and affordability are different concepts captured elsewhere in the Live Index system. Keeping these dimensions separate allows a city to be recognized as a touring hub while still identifying weaknesses in access or infrastructure.